/Treasuries, Dollar Advance Amid Inflation Caution: Markets Wrap

Treasuries, Dollar Advance Amid Inflation Caution: Markets Wrap

Treasuries rose with the U.S. dollar as investors debated the impact of resurgent inflation on monetary policy. U.S. index futures swung between gains and losses with stocks near record highs.

The 10-year yield fell back to 1.56% area with focus turning toward Thursday’s consumer-price data that may offer clues on how far the Federal Reserve can postpone a tapering of stimulus. Futures on S&P 500 were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 contracts rebounded. Oil extended losses amid concern the recent rally may have gone too far. Etsy Inc. fell in premarket trading on plans to sell convertible senior notes.

The recovery in the world’s largest economy and the Fed’s continued dovish stance are supporting a risk-on environment, even as gains are punctuated by worries over inflation, high valuations and disparities in global vaccine rollouts. Forecasts for deepening price pressures have underpinned volatility this week as traders await clues to when the U.S. central bank will begin discussions on a tighter policy.

“We advocate looking through near term market volatility and remain pro-risk, predicated on our belief that the Fed faces a very high bar to change its easy monetary policy stance,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists led by Elga Bartsch wrote in a note.

Volatility has fallen into a traditional sweet spot for stocks

Global equities hover around record highs, and Treasury yields have eased for three successive weeks. That suggests the Fed’s assurances are calming fears of a so-called taper tantrum for now. Yet on Tuesday, traders were exercising caution before the inflation data, helping the dollar post its first gain in three days.

Oil extended a decline, losing some momentum after hitting $70 a barrel in New York for the first time in over two years. Digital tokens including Bitcoin retreated, with the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index shedding as much as 10%.

Etsy dropped 1.7% in early New York trading after saying it will privately place $1 billion of convertible senior notes due 2028. Tesla climbed 2% after posting a 29% month-on-month growth in deliveries of China-made cars in May.

In Europe, the benchmark Stoxx 600 gauge rose for a third day, led by travel companies. A gauge of global equities halted a two-day rally.

For market commentary, follow the MLIV blog.

Here are key events to watch this week:

  • Apple holds its annual Worldwide Developers Conference through June 11.
  • European Central Bank decision on Thursday and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.
  • Iran nuclear deal talks reconvene in Vienna Thursday.
  • U.S. consumer price index on Thursday.
  • Group of Seven leaders’ summit starts in Cornwall, England Friday.

These are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 10:17 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.2%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
  • The euro fell 0.1% to $1.2173
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 109.50 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.3930 per dollar
  • The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.4146

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 1.56%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.21%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.80%

Commodities

  • Brent crude fell 0.5% to $71 a barrel
  • Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,893 an ounce

— With assistance by Vildana Hajric, and Garfield Clinton Reynolds