Today’s Agenda

Brexit Confusion Intensifies

Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Europe

It’s hard to tell if this will make Theresa May feel better or worse: Her Brexit plan, which just received an
historic thrashing in parliament, also happens to be the one path forward that most Brits can tolerate. In a new poll by Number Cruncher Politics, May’s deal was the least-popular of three possible Brexit outcomes, notes the polling site’s head Matt Singh: 

Weirdly, though, when Number Cruncher Politics asked voters which outcome they could most likely stomach, even if it wasn’t their favorite,
May’s plan edged rival outcomes, with the lowest percentage of people saying they’d find it unacceptable: 

To Singh, this suggests May’s plan could be a hold-your-nose consensus outcome. Of course, it’s still a very long shot in parliament. Expect confusion to continue to reign.

In the meantime, the banking sector that has made London a global financial hub is already voting with its feet and wallet. In Davos, Citigroup Inc.’s Michael Corbat delivered a low-key hint his and other banks may
shift large amounts of assets to the continent and Americas after Brexit, writes Elisa Martinuzzi. 

Further European Reading:

Shutdowns Aren’t Free

Today was
Day 33 of a U.S. government shutdown that will apparently never end. The Senate will at least vote on a couple of bills to break the logjam tomorrow, but neither may have sufficient support. President Donald Trump invited himself to give the State of the Union address as scheduled next week, but Nancy Pelosi said she won’t let him in the door. Polls keep showing Republicans and Trump taking most of the blame for the shutdown and its consequences, but Mitch McConnell seems to think voters will forget it all by 2020. Jonathan Bernstein notes that history offers some basis for this belief. But he also writes the
shutdown could have indirect effects on 2020, from inspiring a stronger Democratic field of candidates to firing up a base of energized organizers and voters. The GOP may yet pay a political price for this.  

Further Political Stagecraft Reading: 

America’s Graying Work Population

I have long assumed I will die hunched over a keyboard, probably while writing a newsletter, but most people don’t want to go out like that. Unfortunately, Americans are increasingly forced to work well past traditional retirement years, warns Noah Smith. Not only do too few of us have enough saved for retirement, America’s low birthrates mean we are
slowly running short of the young workers needed to care for an aging population. Unless we change our current immigration policies dramatically, we will increasingly look like Japan, where people work well into their golden years.

New (Tech) Rules

One of the more revolting features of our terrible times is “influencer” culture, which reportedly let Kendall Jenner make $250,000 for one Instagram post promoting the disastrous Fyre Festival. This is infuriating to normal humanoids for many reasons (see “I Will Work Until I Drop Dead,” above), but it is also somewhat annoying to social-media giants such as Facebook Inc., which might want a cut of that ridiculous influencer money. Good news for them: New British rules requiring influencers to tag their product-pitching posts as advertisements
could open the door to new revenue streams, writes Alex Webb. Whew!

Perhaps less productively, French regulators yesterday charged Google $57 million for violating new European data-privacy rules. Bloomberg’s editorial board writes it’s
hard to see what the fine is supposed to accomplish. It suggests enforcement will be more onerous than is good for customers and European businesses, the editors write, suggesting a better approach would be to make companies agree to be certified “information fiduciaries.”

Don’t Call It a Cold War

This newsletter and many other wags keep referring to the U.S.-China trade disagreement as a “Cold War.” And there are some similarities between the current unpleasantness and the U.S.-Soviet conflict. In both cases, the U.S. tried to keep cutting-edge technology out of the hands of its rival. Its tactics didn’t work so well against the Soviets, and they
will definitely not work against China, writes Andrew Browne. There are better ways to protect national security and intellectual property than simply trying to slam the door on technological trade, he writes.  

Further Cold-War Reading:

Telltale Charts

You might think Netflix Inc. and other streaming services would be the death of cable TV providers such as Comcast Corp., encouraging people to finally ditch those oft-hated companies for a blissful Internet existence. But all that
streaming content has to travel through broadband pipes, and Comcast is making a mint that way too, writes Tara Lachapelle, easing the pain of all that cord-cutting.

Record stock buybacks didn’t help the market much last year, aside from maybe making it less terrible than it might have been. But for some reason investors are still counting on
another surge of them this year, Stephen Gandel writes. We could see another record, but might again be disappointed with the effects.

Further Reading

Toyota Motor Corp.’s
new battery-making venture with Panasonic Corp. is a tectonic shift in the electric-car market. – Anjani Trivedi 

United Technologies Corp. just made a strong case for splitting itself up to focus on its aerospace business, which
seems to be somewhat weatherproofed against a global industrial slowdown. – Brooke Sutherland 

Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe could both really use a deal to finally officially end World War II (yes, you read that right) and settle the fate of disputed islands. But
Putin is unusually weak right now and can’t afford to give up any land. – Leonid Bershidsky 

Ireland is considering
boycotting companies that do business in the West Bank. This could cause problems for big tech companies that use Ireland as a tax haven. – Eli Lake 

A new
Israeli gas pipeline and associated forum is a big diplomatic step for Israel, making it part of a group that includes Arab League members for the first time. – Zev Chafets 

Everybody at Davos is mad at the Fed for roiling markets last year, but
their criticisms don’t make much sense. – Brian Chappatta 

The Covington Catholic High School affair
exposes our prejudices. – Ramesh Ponnuru

The Michael J. Fox Foundation’s approach to funding Parkinson’s research has gotten real-world results, including an FDA-approved treatment, and changed the way other foundations do business. – Joe Nocera 

ICYMI

Michael Cohen
delayed his House testimony, citing threats from Trump. Tesla Inc.
cut Model S and X production.

Kickers

Job opportunity: Oscar Mayer Weinermobile driver.

Soon you might have tiny, shape-shifting robots swimming in your bloodstream.

Adorable, rogue mascot terrorizes Japanese town. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers for the first three kickers)

Why are eyeglasses so expensive?

What do do about the alarming decline of quality youth playtime.

Particle physics may have reached the end of the line.

25 incredible underwater photos.

Note: Please send rogue mascots, suggestions and kicker ideas to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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To contact the author of this story:

Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Timothy L. O’Brien at tobrien46@bloomberg.net